Farke defying Premier League sack race statistics at Norwich City
Should Daniel Farke’s future at Norwich City be in doubt after his team’s worrying nosedive in form? David Freezer takes a look at some interesting Premier League managerial statistics.
Usually the Premier League pressure would be mounting on head coach Daniel Farke but there have been few calls for Norwich City to make a change, despite an awful run of form.
To say the German has credit in the bank would be quite the understatement. The 'Farke's on a horse' chant was still being sung by the Canaries faithful on Friday night, despite a damaging defeat to rivals Watford being imminent.
Farke's charming personality endeared him to City supporters enough to, just about, cope with an inconsistent first campaign which ended in 14th place in the Championship with some misfiring football.
However, the quite drastic improvements of last season led to the former Borussia Dortmund II boss being hailed as a genius, after inspiring a remarkable and unexpected title triumph - with a new three-year contract hailed as crucial business when it was signed in March.
That surprise success came with a caveat from Farke and sporting director Stuart Webber though, using the analogy that one mountain had been climbed but that another much more challenging ascent awaited in the Premier League.
So in spite of six defeats in seven games and just two late consolation goals during a drastic downturn, the head coach is not facing fury and demands for City to make a change, even after an error-strewn 2-0 home defeat to Watford which saw the Hornets swap places with the hosts at the foot of the table.
Much of that comes down to Webber forewarning fans that Farke's role would not necessarily just be judged on results this season - although it's clear there would be a limit to how far that patience could stretch, as at any club.
And once a damaging defensive injury crisis is taken into account, robbing the Canaries of senior centre-backs Timm Klose, Christoph Zimmermann and Grant Hanley, even further mitigation is provided.
Ordinarily, the bookies would have Farke among the favourites to be the next Premier League manager to lose their job but the shortest odds being offered on Monday were 8/1 with Coral.
Almost all the major sports betting firms were offering Southampton boss Ralph Hasenhuttl as odds-on favourite, with Unai Emery of Arsenal, West Ham manager Manuel Pellegrini and even Everton's Marco Silva given shorter odds in the sack race.
That's in spite of statistics provided by betting website FootballTips.com which show that Farke would usually be in prime territory to be moved on.
Looking at average single season values for all Premier League managers sacked since 2014-15, they found the following average tipping points, for when clubs make a change.
Sack race key indicators
- League position - 16th
- Games played - 20
- Win percentage - 19.8pc
- Points per game av - 0.85
- Goals per game av - 0.96
- Conceded per game av - 1.70
While Farke is only 12 games in, the rest of those key indicators show that he would usually be under heavy pressure.
Norwich City's season so far
- League position - 20th
- Games played - 12
- Win percentage - 16.7pc
- Points per game average - 0.58
- Goals per game av - 0.92
- Conceded per game av - 2.33
Those figures show that his win-percentage and both average goals scored and conceded are worse than the average sacked Premier League manager in recent seasons.
However, when you look at Farke's 104 league games overall since his 2017 arrival, his win-percentage is actually a far healthier 42.3pc.
While City's average for goals scored under the 43-year-old is 1.47 per game and 1.39 per game for goals conceded.
All eyes are now on whether Farke can recapture some of that magic to get the current top-flight campaign back on track - and even the early season form which saw Manchester City and Newcastle beaten at Carrow Road, and Chelsea pushed all the way in an exciting 3-2 defeat.
That current points per game average is a concern though. In the unlikely event that continued for the remaining 26 matches, Norwich would add just 15 points for a final total of 22.
That would, thankfully, still be double the horrendous record Premier League low of 11 achieved by Derby in 2007-08 - but also well short of the target of 36 points, the average required to finish above the relegation zone in the past 10 seasons.
Now it's down to Farke and his players to prove the faith which is still being shown in their abilities is well placed, to ensure he stays clear of the sack race.