Where Norwich City would finish if Premier League season follows Opta’s simulation

PUBLISHED: 13:48 06 April 2020 | UPDATED: 13:48 06 April 2020

Opta's simulation would see Norwich City relegated to the Championship. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd

Opta's simulation would see Norwich City relegated to the Championship. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd

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Norwich City should have been on the home straight with the finish line in sight, with a series of crunch fixtures to play that would dictate whether they would remain in the Premier League.

Instead, domestic football has ground to a halt as the authorities seek a resolution to the current competitions as society continues its battle with the coronavirus pandemic.

It’s been four weeks since City last kicked a ball in the Premier League, with their 2-0 defeat to Sheffield United at Bramall Lane beginning a period of uncertainty and concern.

Since, the Canaries players have made a substantial financial contribution to aid communities in Norfolk and the season has been suspended “indefinitely”, following the Premier League’s latest stakeholders meeting last Friday.

Statistical gurus at Opta decided to simulate the remaining games in order to produce a final Premier League table by crunching a series of key numbers.

City's last game was a 2-0 Premier League defeat to Sheffield United in early March. 
Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images LtdCity's last game was a 2-0 Premier League defeat to Sheffield United in early March. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd

In order to reach a definitive result, Opta had to take five steps:

Firstly, they had to make an estimation for the outcome of each and every one of the Premier League’s remaining fixtures, which is based on a team’s attacking and defensive qualities, which are based on four years of historic restyle, though more weighting is given to more recent fixtures.

The next step is to take into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes against and rewards them accordingly. To do this, Opta used goal predictions from the Poisson distribution with the two teams’ attacking and defending qualities as inputs.

Finally, they ran the simulation 10,000 times to estimate the chances of each team finishing in each league position in the table.

Villa and Bournemouth would also be relegated. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images LtdVilla and Bournemouth would also be relegated. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd

The outcome sees City finish the season rooted to the table, three points behind 19th placed Aston Villa. The Villians and the Canaries would be joined by AFC Bournemouth in the Championship, according to Opta’s simulation.

Liverpool would be crowned champions with a record 101 points, a massive 21 points clear of Manchester City. Elsewhere, Nigel Pearson’s Watford would complete their great escape, surviving on goal difference.

The final Premier League table based on Opta’s simulation:

1st: Liverpool - 101 pts

2nd: Manchester City - 80 pts

3rd: Leicester City - 67 pts

4th: Chelsea - 63 pts

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5th: Manchester United - 61 pts

6th: Tottenham Hotspur - 58 pts

7th: Wolverhampton Wanderers - 56 pts

8th: Arsenal - 56 pts

9th: Sheffield United - 55 pts

10th: Everton - 50 pts

11th: Burnley - 49 pts

12th: Crystal Palace - 49 pts

13th: Newcastle United - 46 pts

14th: Southampton - 44 pts

15th: West Ham United - 39 pts

16th: Brighton & Hove Albion - 37 pts

17th: Watford - 36 pts

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18th: Bournemouth - 36 pts

19th: Aston Villa - 32 pts

20th: NORWICH CITY - 29 pts

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