Super Computer rates Norwich City’s chance of Premier League survival at 4%

PUBLISHED: 06:00 10 March 2020

The numbers are against Norwich City. 
Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd

The numbers are against Norwich City. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd

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Norwich City’s chance of Premier League survival has dropped to just 4% following defeat to Sheffield United, according to a comprehensive super computer.

The Canaries have occupied the relegation zone for a majority of the season, despite a series of positive performances that they've struggled to extract points from. The latest defeat arrived courtesy of fellow promoted side Sheffield United, with Billy Sharp's first-half header proving the difference.

Daniel Farke's men have nine games remaining to pull off a 'great escape' of their own, having featured in numerous other sides acts of escapology.

Website SportsClubStats.com crunches the numbers for all leagues around the world and have produced their findings after simulating results for the remainder of the Premier League campaign over 17 million times.

City's odds of finishing in the bottom three is an overwhelming 96%, with the likelihood of finishing bottom sitting at 76%. The numbers provide City with a 1% chance of finishing 16th.

City need a sizeable return of points to be in with a shot of survival. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images LtdCity need a sizeable return of points to be in with a shot of survival. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd

If City replicate the results in the previous fixtures, a record of W2 D1 L6, those extra seven points would give them a 4% chance of top-flight survival. Although, the likelihood is that City would need more wins to stay up.

LIKELIHOOD OF RELEGATION

Jamal Lewis tries to hold off the attention of John Lundstram. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images LtdJamal Lewis tries to hold off the attention of John Lundstram. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd

17th - Brighton and Hove Albion - 16%

16th - West Ham United - 31%

17th - Watford - 45%

18th - Aston Villa - 53%

City's defeat to Sheffield United has seen the likelihood of a great escape diminish. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images LtdCity's defeat to Sheffield United has seen the likelihood of a great escape diminish. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd

19th - AFC Bournemouth - 57%

20th - Norwich City - 96%

NORWICH CITY ODDS OF FINISHING...

AFC Bournemouth's stability under Eddie Howe is being tested this season.
 Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images LtdAFC Bournemouth's stability under Eddie Howe is being tested this season. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd

16th - 1%

17th - 3%

18th - 6%

Dean Smith's Aston Villa are also expected to be relegated. Picture: Anthony Devlin/PA WireDean Smith's Aston Villa are also expected to be relegated. Picture: Anthony Devlin/PA Wire

19th - 14%

20th - 76%

DIFFERENT FINAL POINTS SCENARIOS (WLD)

25 pts (1-1-7/0-4-5) - 0% chance of survival

26 pts (1-2-6/0-5-4) - 0% chance of survival

27 pts (1-3-5/2-0-7/0-6-3) - 0% chance of survival

28 pts (1-4-4/2-1-6/0-7-2) - 0% chance of survival

29 pts (2-2-5/1-5-3/0-8-1) - 0% chance of survival

30 pts (2-3-4/3-0-6/1-6-2) - 0% chance of survival

31 pts (2-4-3/3-0-6/1-6-2) 0% chance of survival

32 pts (3-2-4/2-5-2/1-8-0) 1% chance of survival

33 pts (3-3-3/4-0-5/2-6-1) 3% chance of survival

34 pts (4-1-4/3-4-2/2-7-0) 9% chance of survival

35 pts (4-2-3/3-5-1) 22% chance of survival

36 pts (4-3-2/5-0-4/3-6-0) 44% chance of survival

37 pts (5-1-3/4-4-1) 62% chance of survival

38 pts (5-2-2/4-5-0) 83% chance of survival

39 pts (5-3-1/6-0-3) 94% chance of survival

40 pts (6-1-2/5-4-0) 98% chance of survival

41 pts (6-2-1) 100% chance of survival

EXPLANATION OF ODDS

'Sports Club Stats calculates each team's odds of winning the title, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot.

'It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each time the league owner sends in new scores it simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game.

'The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.

'It lets an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it's finished 'playing' all the remaining games it applies the league's tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished.

'It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times, keeping track of how many 'seasons' each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee.

'To help flush out each team's highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining games for a small percentage of the simulation runs.'

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