THE ANALYST: How can City cure their chronic lack of goals?

Scoring a goal is the hardest thing to do in football, that is a fact that is well-documented by anyone who has watched, coached or analysed the game.

For all the metrics, spreadsheets and analysis of matches, finding a formula that results in a consistent supply line of goals is extremely difficult to achieve for even the teams with the most resource.

That is why transfers, despite all the work that goes into signing a player, are still akin to a lottery. As Forrest Gump once said, 'you never know what you're gonna get'.

Norwich have discovered that to their own detriment throughout the years. Ricky van Wolfswinkel ticked all the boxes from the data side but failed to deliver. Teemu Pukki was signed as an understudy to Jordan Rhodes and is now joint seventh in the all-time list of top scorers for the club.

There is no science. Money doesn't guarantee success.

When you delve deep into the metrics and data that Norwich are producing at present, one thing does jump out at you. They have improved their performances since Dean Smith arrived at the club.

Expected goals, both for and against, have been enhanced. There is a consistency across the numbers Norwich are producing. Although there is still work to do.

They are still recording the lowest xG across the entirety of the Premier League. At 14.3xG, they sit rooted to the foot of the division based on the quality of chances they are creating.

At its simplest, the statistic is a measure of chance quality. Shots are given an xG value based on a number of factors, like where a shot was taken and what led up to it.

Given Norwich have scored only eight goals during this campaign, that would suggest an underperformance or hint towards a lack of quality.

Their xG return is improving. Under Smith, they have ranked higher than 1xG per game in three of his four matches in charge. Ironically, the lowest xG produced came during his only win as Norwich boss against Southampton.

Perhaps the biggest improvement under the new coach is the defensive side of those metrics. As a general rule, if you concede an xG of 2 or higher on a regular basis then you are in trouble.

Under Daniel Farke, they did just that in half of their matches this season that he was in charge of. That is unsustainable. It would almost certainly culminate in relegation to the Championship.

But under Smith, Sunday's defeat to Spurs was the first time they have conceded an amount of xG that is over 2.

The focus at the moment is rightly on what Norwich are doing at the top end of the pitch.

Underperforming xG can be a sign of a lack of quality, but also a bad stroke of luck, a poor run of form. You have to dig deeper behind the descriptive uses of that particular metric.

Even the metric points to an overreliance on Teemu Pukki.

His current expected goals return is pretty much aligned with his actual goal return. But at 4.91xG, Pukki is recording a significantly higher level of xG than any of his colleagues in yellow and green. The next player closest to him on that metric is Josh Sargent with 1.6xG.

That's a significant drop-off.

What isn't helped is statistics that show that Norwich's strikers had the fewest touches of the ball of anyone on the pitch that started on Sunday (bar Reguilion who was substituted early on). The service isn't yet as frequent as it needs to be, but when the chances do arrive, the finishing is severely lacking.

Pukki's xG return shows he will convert when presented with chances. Below him in terms of expected goals is Sargent. Positionally, the positive is that he is in the right places but is lacking the technical quality and confidence to dispatch them.

But City haven't discovered a formula to get the ball to their key attacking players in dangerous positions often enough.

In terms of touches in the attacking third, leading the way is Max Aarons (243) and Brandon Williams (197). The implications of that figure shows Norwich's willingness to push their full-backs on but perhaps highlights their struggle to unlock defences at this level.

That is further illustrated by those players carrying the ball into the final third, it isn't the names of attacking, creative players leading the way but Aarons, Williams and Billy Gilmour.

Norwich aren't penetrating their opponents with probing passes. That hints to a few factors.

One of those is quality. Norwich are inevitably struggling to produce moments that create chances to convert. Their attacking players are struggling to influence games in the way they need to.

Another is the limited amount of touches inside the box for anyone who isn't Pukki. They cannot get their attacking players into the game. They are struggling to progress the ball in the final third from central positions.

Beyond Milot Rashica, creativity remains an issue.

Smith said after the weekend that it would down to the coaching staff to find a tune out of the players. Some of the focus on high pressing that Smith has introduced is about exploiting the opposition when they lose their structure by turning the ball over high up the pitch.

But what you can't do is put too much of an onus of putting the ball in the back of the net. That merely reinforces the issue and can cause players with bigger issues.

Norwich City's conversion rate remains pitifully low. (Image: ©Focus Images Limited www.focus-images.co.uk +44 7813 022858)

Smith and his coaching staff will be using dynamic attacking drills surrounding movement and quick interplay in an attempt to rectify this issue.

This is an area that improvement is being seen. Rashica in particular was boasting healthier numbers before his injury.

But the conversion rate is egregious. The fact Pukki has netted 63% of their goals is a problem. The good news is they are improving the amount of chances being created. But the conversion rate is, as yet, unmoved.

Given they are beginning to construct more chances, the fact the conversion rate remains low points to a lack of quality. The question for Smith is, how do change that?