The Analyst: Time to dispel the myth that City need a striker in January

If you think about it, this is a natural conclusion to reach. Strikers are tasked to score goals. Norwich require more of them. But the discussion is actually a lot more nuanced and complex than that.

A dive into the data behind City's attacking performance is grim.

They have scored just eight goals from 17 matches, a rate that would see them notch fewer times than Derby County (07/08) and Sheffield United (20/21) for the fewest goals in a single Premier League campaign (20) if maintained over the second half of the season.

On average, they are recording 8.74 shots per game. The fewest in the division. They have the lowest shot on target rate in the Premier League at 29.4%.

Those numbers aren't low solely because of Norwich's striking options, but point to a wider problem within their current group of players. They simply aren't constructing enough chances per game or working the ball into good enough positions for shots.

In Teemu Pukki, they have a goalscorer. What's more impressive is his rate of goals considering the lack of service or opportunities he is getting.

Boil it down, and the fact he has scored five goals from such limited service speaks volumes of his quality. Per game, Pukki is averaging 3.53 touches in the box, that's further evidence of their struggles to get the ball into good areas.

Per game, Pukki is averaging 1.68 shots. In essence, that is then asking the Finn to produce a goal from less than two chances every match, very few strikers in world football are capable of scoring from a rate like that on a consistent basis.

Norwich are getting consistency from Pukki. He is a proven goal scorer.

The Finnish international has scored five goals from an xG of 5.49. Since 2015, he has been on par with his xG numbers (0.51 goals per game from 0.49xG), which is a sign of his quality.

For context, Arsenal's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored four goals from an xG of 5.8, including two missed penalties. Other players underperform their xG numbers, which is a metric used to determine the quality of a chance out of 1.

Pukki's two penalties undeniably boost his metrics. The numbers show he scores roughly once in every 10 shots. That is a higher rate than Allan Saint-Maximin, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus and on par with Wolves striker Raul Jimenez.

The evidence is clear. Provide Pukki with a consistent stream of chances and he will score goals.

Given their resources, current league position and squad, it would be very difficult for Norwich to attract a 'better' striker than Pukki. The fact he is on course to record another Premier League season where he has netted double figures showcases his quality.

Perhaps the bigger debate is around the attacking functionality of the midfield. Those currently occupying those spots aren't really contributing from an offensive perspective beyond some cute third man runs from Lukas Rupp in recent matches, noticeably Manchester United.

In a 4-3-3, there has to be an attacking offering from those in central midfield and in wide areas, otherwise, the whole system can feel stodgy.

Billy Gilmour is a prime example of the issues Norwich have in attack. In possession, he offers quality at points but his passes rarely lead to goalscoring opportunities. The same criticism can be levelled at Kenny McLean or Pierre Lees-Melou.

Mathias Normann has provided a more direct passing threat, but his pass completion is significantly lower than City's other players. Maybe the criticism is he attempts to force the issue too much. But without him, Norwich struggle for any sort of threat from midfield.

In the one season Norwich have managed to stay up after promotion to the Premier League back in 2011/12, they had goals throughout the team.

Is Milot Rashica the man to ease the burden on Teemu Pukki? (Image: ©Focus Images Limited www.focus-images.co.uk +44 7813 022858)

Admittedly, Grant Holt stole the headlines and managed to score 15 goals, but behind him he had players like Steve Morison (9), Anthony Pilkington (8), Wes Hoolahan (4), Andrew Surman (4) and Simeon Jackson (2). There were goals across the team because of the number of opportunities they constructed.

Currently, if Pukki doesn't score then it's extremely unlikely that Norwich are able to. That is a massive problem. It's fatal for any team hoping to stay up.

Norwich are struggling with their work in possession. Their main ball progressors are their central defenders. The most common pass they play is from a centre-back to a midfielder or full-back.

It is perhaps a damning indictment on their summer recruitment.

For all the hope and expectation being placed on Milot Rashica's shoulders, the Kosovan has failed to score and has only recorded two assists, both of which were corners.

Even if the winger was to have a burst in output, Norwich would still need goals to come from elsewhere. It's currently very hard, both from watching games and analysing data, to see where those goals are coming from.

Beyond Pukki and a single strike from Normann, no midfield or attacking player has recorded a single goal. Forget metrics. Forget everything else. That is simply a lack of quality.

In open play, Norwich simply don't cause their opponents enough issues. That is graphically illustrated by the aforementioned metrics on shots per game and Pukki's individual numbers.

That is one reason why adding a striker to their squad isn't the answer. Ultimately, unless they could improve on Pukki's finishing metrics, that would be almost futile in reality because the service would remain the same.

Replacing Emi Buendia's influence was always going to be a near impossibility but Norwich are so devoid of creativity. Todd Cantwell hasn't offered the quality many hoped he would after the Argentinean swapped Carrow Road for Villa Park.

Solving their attacking struggles is the big task for Dean Smith.

If Norwich are going to dip their toe in the January market, a notoriously tough window that many inside the game are expecting to slow with few deals done aside from Newcastle, then it is probably worth looking to add a creative presence.