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Where Norwich City would finish if Premier League season follows Opta’s simulation
Opta's simulation would see Norwich City relegated to the Championship. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd - Credit: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd
Norwich City should have been on the home straight with the finish line in sight, with a series of crunch fixtures to play that would dictate whether they would remain in the Premier League.
Instead, domestic football has ground to a halt as the authorities seek a resolution to the current competitions as society continues its battle with the coronavirus pandemic.
It’s been four weeks since City last kicked a ball in the Premier League, with their 2-0 defeat to Sheffield United at Bramall Lane beginning a period of uncertainty and concern.
Since, the Canaries players have made a substantial financial contribution to aid communities in Norfolk and the season has been suspended “indefinitely”, following the Premier League’s latest stakeholders meeting last Friday.
Statistical gurus at Opta decided to simulate the remaining games in order to produce a final Premier League table by crunching a series of key numbers.
City's last game was a 2-0 Premier League defeat to Sheffield United in early March. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd - Credit: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd
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In order to reach a definitive result, Opta had to take five steps:
Firstly, they had to make an estimation for the outcome of each and every one of the Premier League’s remaining fixtures, which is based on a team’s attacking and defensive qualities, which are based on four years of historic restyle, though more weighting is given to more recent fixtures.
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The next step is to take into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes against and rewards them accordingly. To do this, Opta used goal predictions from the Poisson distribution with the two teams’ attacking and defending qualities as inputs.
Finally, they ran the simulation 10,000 times to estimate the chances of each team finishing in each league position in the table.
Villa and Bournemouth would also be relegated. Picture: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd - Credit: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd
The outcome sees City finish the season rooted to the table, three points behind 19th placed Aston Villa. The Villians and the Canaries would be joined by AFC Bournemouth in the Championship, according to Opta’s simulation.
Liverpool would be crowned champions with a record 101 points, a massive 21 points clear of Manchester City. Elsewhere, Nigel Pearson’s Watford would complete their great escape, surviving on goal difference.
The final Premier League table based on Opta’s simulation:
1st: Liverpool - 101 pts
2nd: Manchester City - 80 pts
3rd: Leicester City - 67 pts
4th: Chelsea - 63 pts
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5th: Manchester United - 61 pts
6th: Tottenham Hotspur - 58 pts
7th: Wolverhampton Wanderers - 56 pts
8th: Arsenal - 56 pts
9th: Sheffield United - 55 pts
10th: Everton - 50 pts
11th: Burnley - 49 pts
12th: Crystal Palace - 49 pts
13th: Newcastle United - 46 pts
14th: Southampton - 44 pts
15th: West Ham United - 39 pts
16th: Brighton & Hove Albion - 37 pts
17th: Watford - 36 pts
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18th: Bournemouth - 36 pts
19th: Aston Villa - 32 pts
20th: NORWICH CITY - 29 pts
